Machine Learning for Multi-Vessel Coronary Artery Disease Prediction on Electrocardiogram Gated Single-Photon Emission Computed Tomography.

Background: Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) encounters difficulties in diagnosing severe multi-vessel coronary artery disease (svMVD) because of balanced ischemia. We estimated the predictive value of electrocardiogram-gated SPECT for svMVD and improved it using machine learning (ML). Methods and results: We enrolled consecutive 335 patients (median age, 74 years; 255 men) who underwent adenosine stress-gated SPECT (99mTechnesium) and coronary angiography. svMVD was defined as three-vessel disease or left main tract stenosis. Predictive models were constructed using statistical and ML methods. Eighteen cases (5%) showed svMVD, and diabetes, summed stress score (SSS), and the max difference among segmental time of stroke volume per cardiac cycle (MDSV: a parameter of left ventricular [LV] end-systolic dyssynchrony) on adenosine stress were independent significant predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of SSS and MDSV on stress were 0.759 and 0.763, respectively. Conversely, the extra trees classifier and light gradient boosting machine had improved AUC values of 0.826 and 0.870, respectively, and the MDSV on stress and diabetes showed high feature values in the ML models. Conclusion: ML on SPECT helped to improve the diagnostic performance of svMVD and diabetes, and the parameters of LV dyssynchrony played essential roles in the ML predictive models.

Risk prediction of inappropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy using machine learning.

We aimed to develop machine learning-based predictive models for identifying inappropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. Our study included 182 consecutive cases (average age 62.2 ± 4.5 years, 169 men) and employed 14 non-deep learning models for prediction (hold-out method). These models utilized selected electrocardiogram parameters and clinical features collected after ICD implantation. From the feature importance analysis of the best ML model, we established easily calculable scores. Among the patients, 25 (13.7%) experienced inappropriate therapy, and we identified 16 significant predictors. Using recursive feature elimination with cross-validation, we reduced the features to six with high feature importance: history of atrial arrhythmia (Atr-arrhythm), ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM), absence of diabetes mellitus (DM), lack of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), V3 ST level at J point (V3 STJ), and V5 R-wave amplitudes (V5R amp). The extra-trees classifier yielded the highest area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC; 0.869 on test data). Thus, the Cardi35 score was defined as [+ 5.5*Atr-arrhythm - 1.5*CRT + 1.0*V3STJ + 1.0*V5R - 1.0*ICM - 0.5*DM], which demonstrated a hazard ratio of 1.62 (P < 0.001). A cut-off value of the score + 5.5 showed high AUROC (0.826). The ML approach can yield a robust prediction model, and the Cardi35 score was a convenient predictor for inappropriate therapy.

Diagnosis and Prognostic Value of the Underlying Cause of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Optical Coherence Tomography-Guided Emergency Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Background The prognostic impact of optical coherence tomography-diagnosed culprit lesion morphology in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) has not been systematically examined in real-world settings. Methods and Results This investigator-initiated, prospective, multicenter, observational study was conducted at 22 Japanese hospitals to identify the prevalence of underlying ACS causes (plaque rupture [PR], plaque erosion [PE], and calcified nodules [CN]) and their impact on clinical outcomes. Patients with ACS diagnosed within 24 hours of symptom onset undergoing emergency percutaneous coronary intervention were enrolled. Optical coherence tomography-guided percutaneous coronary intervention recipients were assessed for underlying ACS causes and followed up for major adverse cardiac events (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, heart failure, or ischemia-driven revascularization) at 1 year. Of 1702 patients with ACS, 702 (40.7%) underwent optical coherence tomography-guided percutaneous coronary intervention for analysis. PR, PE, and CN prevalence was 59.1%, 25.6%, and 4.0%, respectively. One-year major adverse cardiac events occurred most frequently in patients with CN (32.1%), followed by PR (12.4%) and PE (6.2%) (log-rank P<0.0001), primarily driven by increased cardiovascular death (CN, 25.0%; PR, 0.7%; PE, 1.1%; log-rank P<0.0001) and heart failure trend (CN, 7.1%; PR, 6.8%; PE, 2.2%; log-rank P<0.075). On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the underlying ACS cause was associated with 1-year major adverse cardiac events (CN [hazard ratio (HR), 4.49 [95% CI, 1.35-14.89], P=0.014]; PR (HR, 2.18 [95% CI, 1.05-4.53], P=0.036]; PE as reference). Conclusions Despite being the least common, CN was a clinically significant underlying ACS cause, associated with the highest future major adverse cardiac events risk, followed by PR and PE. Future studies should evaluate the possibility of ACS underlying cause-based optical coherence tomography-guided optimization.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Culprit Plaque Characteristics in Women With Acute Coronary Syndromes.

Outcomes after myocardial infarction in women remain poor. The number of cardiovascular risk factors in women increase with age, however the relation between risk factors and culprit plaque characteristics in this population is poorly understood. The aim of the study was to investigate the relation between risk factors and culprit plaque characteristics in women with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). A total of 382 women who presented with ACS and underwent pre-intervention optical coherence tomography imaging of the culprit lesion were included in this analysis. The culprit plaques were categorized as plaque rupture, plaque erosion or calcified plaque, and then stratified by age and risk factors. The predominant pathology of ACS was plaque erosion in young patients (<60 years), which decreased with age (p <0.001). Current smokers had a high prevalence of plaque rupture (60%) and lipid plaque (79%). Women with diabetes tended to have more lipid plaque (70%) even at a young age. In women with hyperlipidemia, the prevalence of lipid plaques was modest in younger ages, but rose gradually with age (p <0.001). An increasing age trend for lipid plaque was also observed in women with hypertension (p = 0.03) and current smokers (p = 0.01). In conclusion, early treatment of risk factors such as diabetes in young women might be important before accelerated progression of atherosclerosis begins as age advances. Clinical trial registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01110538, NCT03479723 and NCT02041650.

Optical Coherence Tomography-Guided Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Rationale and Design of the ATLAS-OCT Study.

Even after successful revascularization with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), subsequent adverse events still occur. Previous studies have suggested potential benefits of intravascular imaging, including optical coherence tomography (OCT). However, the feasibility of OCT-guided primary PCI has not been systematically examined in these patients. The ATLAS-OCT (ST-elevation Acute myocardial infarcTion and cLinicAl outcomeS treated by Optical Coherence Tomography-guided percutaneous coronary intervention) trial was designed to investigate the feasibility of OCT guidance during primary PCI for STEMI in experienced centers with expertise on OCT-guided PCI as a prospective, multicenter registry of consecutive patients with STEMI who underwent a primary PCI. The sites' inclusion criteria are as follows: (1) acute care hospitals providing 24/7 emergency care for STEMI, and (2) institutions where OCT-guided PCI is the first choice for primary PCI in STEMI. All patients with STEMI who underwent primary PCI at participating sites will be consecutively enrolled, irrespective of OCT use during PCI. The primary end point will be the rate of successful OCT imaging during the primary PCI. As an ancillary imaging modality to angiography, OCT provides morphologic information during PCI for the assessment of plaque phenotypes, vessel sizing, and PCI optimization. Major adverse cardiac events, defined as a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization at 1 year, will also be recorded. The ATLAS-OCT study will clarify the feasibility of OCT-guided primary PCI for patients with STEMI and further identify a suitable patient group for OCT-guided primary PCI.

Clinical Significance of Coronary Healed Plaques in Stable Angina Pectoris Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BACKGROUND: Coronary healed plaques (HPs) reportedly have high vulnerability or show advanced atherosclerosis and a risk of rapid plaque progression. However, the prognosis of stable angina pectoris (SAP) patients with HPs undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains under-investigated.Methods and Results: We analyzed 417 consecutive lesions from SAP patients undergoing pre- and post-intervention optical coherence tomography (OCT) for which HPs were defined as having a layered appearance. We investigated the differences in clinical and lesion characteristics, and post-PCI outcomes between HPs and non-HPs. To account for differences in clinical characteristics, propensity score matching was performed between the groups. HPs were observed in 216 lesions (51.8%) in the total cohort. In the propensity-matched cohort (n=294), HPs had higher rates of angiographic-B2/C lesions (77.6% vs. 59.2%, P<0.001), OCT-lipid-rich plaques (40.8% vs. 25.9%, P=0.007), macrophages (78.2% vs. 44.2%, P<0.001), greater luminal area stenosis (73.5±11.0% vs. 71.5±10.3%, P=0.002), and a higher prevalence of post-stenting irregular tissue protrusion (45.1% vs. 14.7%, P<0.001) than non-HPs. In the total cohort, target lesion revascularization (TLR)-free survival was poorer for HPs (log-rank test 7.66; P=0.006), and Cox proportional hazards analysis showed HP as an independent predictor of TLR (hazard ratio, 5.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.72-20.82; P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: In SAP patients, HPs had greater complexity of lesions and higher vulnerability, which may have contributed to the poorer post-PCI outcomes.

Machine learning of microvolt-level 12-lead electrocardiogram can help distinguish takotsubo syndrome and acute anterior myocardial infarction.

Background: Qualitative differences in 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG) at onset have been reported in patients with takotsubo syndrome (TTS) and acute anterior myocardial infarction (Ant-AMI). We aimed to distinguish these diseases by machine learning (ML) approach of microvolt-level quantitative measurements. Methods: We enrolled 56 consecutive patients with sinus rhythm TTS (median age, 77 years; 16 men), and 1-to-1 random matching was performed based on age and sex of the patients. The ECG in the emergency room was evaluated using an automated system (ECAPs12c; Nihon-Koden). Statistical and ML predictive models for TTS were constructed using clinical features and ECG parameters. Results: Statistically significant differences were observed in 25 parameters; the V1 ST level at the J point (V1 STJ) showed the lowest P value (P < .001). V1 STJ ≤+18 µV showed the highest accuracy for TTS (0.773). The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was shown in the aVR ST level at 1/16th of the preceding R-R interval after the J point (aVR STmid: 0.727). Conversely, the light gradient boosting machine (model_LGBM) and extra tree classifier (model_ET) indicated higher accuracy (model_LGBM: 0.842, model_ET: 0.831) and AUROC (model_LGBM: 0.868, model_ET 0.896) than other statistical models. V1 STJ had high feature importance and Shapley additive explanation values in the 2 ML models. Conclusion: ML applied to automated microvolt-level ECG measurements showed the possibility of distinguishing between TTS and Ant-AMI, which may be a clinically useful ECG-based discriminator.

Rationale and design of the TACTICS registry: Optical coherence tomography guided primary percutaneous coronary intervention for patients with acute coronary syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Recent retrospective investigations have suggested that optical coherence tomography (OCT) enables the diagnosis of underlying acute coronary syndrome (ACS) causes such as plaque rupture, plaque erosion, and calcified nodule. The relationships of these etiologies with clinical outcomes, and the clinical utility of OCT-guided primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are not systematically studied in real-world ACS treatment settings. METHODS: The TACTICS registry is an investigator-initiated, prospective, multicenter, observational study to be conducted at 21 hospitals in Japan. A total of 700 patients with ACS (symptom onset within 24 h) undergoing OCT-guided primary PCI will be enrolled. The primary endpoint of the study is to identify the underlying causes of ACS using OCT-defined morphological assessment of the culprit lesion. The key secondary clinical endpoints are hazard ratios of the composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, heart failure, or ischemia-driven revascularization in patients with underlying etiologies at the 12- and 24-month follow-ups. The feasibility of OCT-guided primary PCI for ACS will be assessed by the achievement rates of optimal post-procedural results and safety endpoints. CONCLUSION: The TACTICS registry will provide an overview of the underlying causes of ACS using OCT, and will reveal any difference in clinical outcomes depending on the underlying causes. The registry will also inform on the feasibility of OCT-guided primary PCI for patients with ACS.

Sex Differences in Culprit Plaque Characteristics Among Different Age Groups in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant decline in cardiovascular mortality in women over the past several decades, sex differences in the underlying pathology of acute coronary syndromes remain poorly understood. Previous postmortem studies have demonstrated sex differences in coronary plaque morphology with a higher prevalence of plaque erosion in young women and more plaque rupture in older women after menopause, whereas men showed no increase in prevalence of plaque rupture with age. However, in vivo data are limited. METHODS: This study included patients who presented with acute coronary syndrome and underwent preintervention optical coherence tomography imaging of the culprit lesion. The culprit plaque was categorized as plaque rupture, plaque erosion or culprit plaque with calcification, and stratified by age. Features of plaque vulnerability at culprit lesion were also analyzed. RESULTS: In 1368 patients (women=286), women and men had a similar distribution of culprit plaque morphology (plaque rupture versus plaque erosion). However, significant sex differences were found in the underlying mechanisms of acute coronary syndrome among different age groups: women showed a significant ascending trend with age in plaque rupture (P<0.001) and the features of plaque vulnerability such as lipid plaque (P<0.001), thin-cap fibroatheroma (P=0.005), and microstructures including macrophages, cholesterol crystals, and calcification (P=0.026). No trend was observed in men. CONCLUSIONS: Age related sex differences in culprit plaque morphology and vulnerability were identified in patients with acute coronary syndrome: prevalence of plaque rupture and vulnerability increased with age in women but not in men. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT01110538 and NCT03479723.

Optical coherence tomography in coronary atherosclerosis assessment and intervention.

Since optical coherence tomography (OCT) was first performed in humans two decades ago, this imaging modality has been widely adopted in research on coronary atherosclerosis and adopted clinically for the optimization of percutaneous coronary intervention. In the past 10 years, substantial advances have been made in the understanding of in vivo vascular biology using OCT. Identification by OCT of culprit plaque pathology could potentially lead to a major shift in the management of patients with acute coronary syndromes. Detection by OCT of healed coronary plaque has been important in our understanding of the mechanisms involved in plaque destabilization and healing with the rapid progression of atherosclerosis. Accurate detection by OCT of sequelae from percutaneous coronary interventions that might be missed by angiography could improve clinical outcomes. In addition, OCT has become an essential diagnostic modality for myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries. Insight into neoatherosclerosis from OCT could improve our understanding of the mechanisms of very late stent thrombosis. The appropriate use of OCT depends on accurate interpretation and understanding of the clinical significance of OCT findings. In this Review, we summarize the state of the art in cardiac OCT and facilitate the uniform use of this modality in coronary atherosclerosis. Contributions have been made by clinicians and investigators worldwide with extensive experience in OCT, with the aim that this document will serve as a standard reference for future research and clinical application.

Aortic plaque burden predicts vascular events in patients with cardiovascular disease: The EAST-NOGA study.

BACKGROUND: Non-obstructive general angioscopy (NOGA) can be used to diagnose aortic atherosclerotic plaques. We examine the association between the number of aortic plaques detected by NOGA and the risk of subsequent cardiovascular events. METHODS: The Evaluation of AtheroScleroTic and rupture events by Non-Obstructive General Angioscopy (EAST-NOGA) was a prospective cohort study of patients with suspected coronary artery disease who underwent NOGA. RESULTS: Of the 577 patients who underwent NOGA, 532 (92%) completed the follow-up (median follow-up: 13 months, interquartile range: 12-16). The median number of plaques per person was 6 (interquartile range: 3-12), and 567 (98%) had at least one aortic plaque. During the 13-month follow-up, 38 (7.1%) patients had a primary composite endpoint [including cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease (PAD), or worsening renal function], which was significantly associated with chronic kidney disease, a history of PAD, a lower hemoglobin level, and large numbers of aortic plaques [11 (5-17) vs. 6 (2-11), p = 0.003]. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for the number of aortic plaques predicting composite endpoints revealed that the cut-off value of aortic plaques was 12. After multivariate adjustment, the presence of ≥12 aortic plaques remained a significant predictor for composite endpoint events (hazard ratio 2.53, 95% confidence interval 1.26-5.04, p = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: The number of aortic plaques detected by NOGA may predict subsequent clinical events.

Age and Phenotype of Patients With Plaque Erosion.

Background A recent study reported that the outcome of patients with plaque erosion treated with stenting is poor when the underlying plaque is lipid rich. However, the detailed phenotype of patients with plaque erosion, particularly as related to different age groups, has not been systematically studied. Methods and Results Patients with acute coronary syndromes caused by plaque erosion were selected from 2 data sets. Demographic, clinical, angiographic, and optical coherence tomography findings of the culprit lesion were compared between 5 age groups. Among 579 erosion patients, male sex and current smoking were less frequent, and hypertension, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease were more frequent in older patients. ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction was more frequent in younger patients. Percentage of diameter stenosis on angiogram was greater in older patients. The prevalence of lipid-rich plaque (27.3% in age <45 years and 49.4% in age ≥75 years, P<0.001), cholesterol crystal (3.9% in age <45 years and 21.8% in age ≥75 years, P=0.027), and calcification (5.5% in age <45 years and 54.0% in age ≥75 years, P<0.001) increased with age. After adjusting risk factors, younger patients were associated with the presence of thrombus, and older patients were associated with greater percentage of diameter stenosis and the presence of lipid-rich plaque and calcification. Conclusions The demographic, clinical, angiographic, and plaque phenotypes of patients with plaque erosion distinctly vary depending on age. This may affect the clinical outcome in these patients. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT03479723, NCT02041650.

Optical coherence tomography and coronary angioscopy assessment of healed coronary plaque components.

PURPOSE: Histopathological or intracoronary image assessment of healed plaques (HPs) has been reported. However, the lesion characteristics of HPs remains undetermined yet. We assessed the healed plaque components in patients with coronary artery lesions using multiple imaging modalities. METHODS: We enrolled 33 stable angina pectoris (SAP) patients with 36 native coronary culprit lesions with angiography severe stenosis and without severe calcification undergoing pre-intervention optical coherence tomography (OCT) and coronary angioscopy (CAS). HPs were defined as layered phenotype on OCT. Lesion morphologies and plaque characteristics of HPs were assessed using OCT and CAS. RESULTS: HPs were observed in 19 lesions (52.8%). HP lesions had higher frequent B2/C lesions (89.4% vs. 52.9%, p = 0.02), worse pre-PCI coronary flow (corrected thrombolysis in myocardial infarction count 21.6 ± 13.5 vs. 13.8 ± 6.2, p = 0.047) and greater lumen-area stenosis (79.6 ± 10.6% vs. 68.0 ± 21.6%, p = 0.047) than non-HP lesions. HP lesions had higher prevalence of OCT-thin-cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) (31.6% vs. 0.0%, p = 0.02), OCT-macrophage (89.5% vs. 41.2%, p = 0.004), and CAS-red thrombus (89.5% vs. 41.2%, p = 0.004) than non-HP lesions. The combination of 3 features including OCT-TCFA, macrophages, and CAS-red thrombus showed higher predictive valuer for HPs on OCT than each single variable. Post-PCI irregular tissue protrusion was more frequently observed in lesions with HPs than in those without (52.6% vs. 13.3%, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: SAP lesions with HPs might have more frequent vulnerable plaques with intraplaque inflammation and thrombus than those without, suggesting that layered phenotype on OCT might reflect not only healing process but also potential risks for future coronary events.

Left ventricular end-systolic contractile entropy can predict cardiac prognosis in patients with complete left bundle branch block.

BACKGROUND: Several patients with complete left bundle branch block (CLBBB) show left ventricular (LV) dyssynchrony and poor cardiac prognosis. However, the prognostic value of LV end-systolic contractile entropy which was measured by single-photon emission computer tomography (SPECT) has not been elucidated in patients with CLBBB. METHODS AND RESULTS: We recruited consecutive 115 sinus-rhythm patients with CLBBB who underwent ECG-gated 201TlCl-SPECT. After 30 days of observation, finally 102 patients (75.2 ± 9.5 years, 62 male) were enrolled and observed retrospectively for a median of 671 days. Twenty-five patients fell into major cardiac events. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤ 39.35 mL/min and entropy ≥ 79% were significant and independent predictors for major cardiac events (hazard ratio: 4.256 and 7.587, P value = 0.006 and < 0.001, respectively). Machine learning (Random Forest method) revealed eGFR and entropy had higher feature importance than other predictors (0.140 and 0.138, respectively). Kaplan-Meyer curve analysis demonstrated that the group with entropy ≥ 79% and eGFR ≤ 39.36 mL/min had the worst cardiac prognosis (Logrank: P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Left ventricular end-systolic contractile entropy predicts poor cardiac prognosis in patients with CLBBB, which may be more valuable than the other parameters of SPECT.

Circadian variations in pathogenesis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: an optical coherence tomography study.

Previous studies have reported a circadian variation in the onset of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, underlying mechanisms for the circadian variation have not been fully elucidated. We investigated the relationship between onset of STEMI and the underlying pathology using optical coherence tomography (OCT). Patients with a diagnosis of STEMI were selected from a multicenter OCT registry. Patients were divided into 4 groups based on the estimated time of onset (00:00-05:59, 06:00-11:59, 12:00-17:59, or 18:00-23:59). Underlying pathologies of MI (plaque rupture, plaque erosion, and calcified plaque) were compared among the 4 groups. Among 648 patients, plaque rupture was diagnosed in 386 patients (59.6%), plaque erosion in 197 patients (30.4%), and calcified plaque in 65 patients (10.0%). A marked circadian variation was detected in the incidence of plaque rupture with a peak at 09:00, whereas it was not evident in plaque erosion or calcified plaque. The probability of plaque rupture significantly increased in the periods of 06:00-11:59 [odds ratio (OR) 2.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.30-3.49, p = 0.002] and 12:00-17:59 (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.23-3.58, p = 0.005), compared to the period of 00:00-05:59. This circadian pattern was observed only during weekdays (p = 0.010) and it was not evident during the weekend (p = 0.742). Plaque rupture occurred most frequently in the morning and this circadian variation was evident only during weekdays. Acute MI caused by plaque rupture may be related to catecholamine surge.